Disturbing reality

I supposed many of you who follow international news in a fairly regular way have noted the upsurge AOG (armed opposition groups) activities in Afghanistan over the past months, and in particular over the past weeks. Working in Afghanistan, and deeply caring for this country, I have been following events over the past ten months, but even more so since the tragic incident on the 13th of August, that involved the death of four IRC staff members and serious injuries of a fifth staff member. There are several things that extremely worry me when looking at the developments that have marked Afghanistan over the past months. Among them are the declining immunity which the aid community used to enjoy during the past decades. It seems that AOG distinguish less and less between aid workers, international military forces, contractors, etc. We all seem to be equally spies and enimies to them. On the other hand, traditioanl mitigation strategies such as ensuring community acceptance dont seem to work any longer. Communities that used to guarantee our safety because the appreciated our work increasinly tell us that the just can't do so any longer. And in Afghanistan, being a foreigner (which includes foreigner to the distrct, i.e. an afghan from another province working in a district he/she has no family relatives in) AND having no local support networks means being wihout protection. More than everything else, what is worrying is the fact that more and more traditionally "safe" provinces have turned into no go zones over the past months. Whereas the surroundings of Kabul used to be fairly safe, Taliban activities in these provinces has increased tremendously over recent months. The fact that Wardak and Logar, two provinces just outside Kabul are nowadays labelled as the new Kandahar and Kunduz speaks for itself.
Although most analyists predict that Taliban could not take over Kabul as they did 13 years ago, due to the strong presence of international and national military forces, there is a question on how long these forces would endure a mere stalemate before retreating. As a friend of mine has pointed out recently, Afghans are good at many things, but one thing they are particularly good in is waiting. Time doesnt seem to count in Afghanistan, which means that AOGs might not mind at all in simply "sitting it out". While IMF might stand against them for some time, NGOs might retreat rather quickly. Already now, I know from several friends of mine who are considering leaving afghanistan before the end of their contracts, or at least not extending their contracts. Recruiting qualified people under the current circumstances will be a mere nightmare for NGOs.

What unsettles me the most is the inability of the world to effectively support change in afghanistan. Opportunities have been missed over and over again. In 2003 for instance, at a point when the afghan population showed a relative strong support for change and a new government, we failed to provide the neccessary support to make things happen. Instead, we turned on Irak. In the meantime, Talibans, who were never really defeated (after all, nobody knew how many taliban there were to begin with) retreated to the border areas along Afghanistan and Pakistan, where they reformed. A come back was not difficult. After all, the communities had been waiting in vain for change, a change and development that the government had not been able to deliver.

Even now, after eyeopening months, the international community is not able to step up. Instead of pulling ressources together for larger interventions, few thousend additional troops are discussed every now and then. What people dont seem to realize is that what could be achieved with a certain amount of ressources and committment today, might take triple, or even more ressources and time tomorrow.

I am not per se supporting military interventions, but in a case like Afghanistan, I know that a complete retreat of military forces is defenitely not the solultion. Trying to distance ourselves (the aid community) from the military forces also does not seem to make sense. After all, we are already regarded as part of them. Instead, I believe that a way forward would have to include a in depth conversation between all actors involved in Afghanistan, in particular local authorities who are still supportive of change. One thing that we should not forget is that we can facilitate, but we cannot determine the actions that will lead to a better Afghanistan. In addition, I dont think that it is the right time to negotiate around ressources. Last but not least, one of the most important aspects of any successful way forward has to look at the region as a whole, in particular Afghaniststan and Pakistan.

If we don't step up now, we will loose out on yet another opportunity.

(there is a very well written article on the guardian on Afghanistans recent developments